Your trade
Stop below entry is a long. Stop above entry is a short.
Your target must sit on the opposite side of your entry from your stop.
Counted on your entry and on your exit. Check your exchange fee page.
A ratio of 2 means your target pays twice what your stop loses.
Fees and slippage as a share of your risk. 0.1 means one tenth of an R.
Use the number from your own trading journal. Leave it blank to skip expectancy.
How many trades you expect to take. Try 50 or 200.
Your result
—See result ↓
How to use this calculator
- Choose how to enter your trade. Use prices if you have an entry stop and target. Use the ratio option if you already know your ratio.
- Add your win rate. Pull it from a trading journal. A guess is fine for a what-if but real data is better.
- Read your break-even win rate. It is the share of trades you must win so wins and losses cancel out.
- Check the losing streak table. Add your account size and risk per trade to see what a run of losses does to your balance.
The numbers shown at first are only an example. Replace them with your own plan.
The risk reward formulas
This is the math behind every number above:
Risk = |entry − stop| Reward = |target − entry| Risk to reward = reward ÷ risk Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + risk to reward) Expectancy (R) = win rate × ratio − (1 − win rate)Example: entry at $100 with a stop at $95 and a target at $110. Your risk is $5 and your reward is $10 so the ratio is 1 to 2. The break-even win rate is 1 ÷ 3 or 33.3%. At a 40% win rate expectancy is 0.4 × 2 − 0.6 = +0.2R. That means about a fifth of your risk per trade if the win rate holds. It is arithmetic on your inputs and not a forecast.
Break-even win rate by ratio
Before costs the break-even win rate depends only on your ratio.
| Risk to reward | Win rate needed to break even |
|---|---|
| 1 : 0.5 | 66.7% |
| 1 : 1 | 50% |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40% |
| 1 : 2 | 33.3% |
| 1 : 3 | 25% |
| 1 : 4 | 20% |
| 1 : 5 | 16.7% |
A bigger ratio lowers the win rate you need but a bigger target usually gets hit less often. Fees raise every number in this table.
Ratio and win rate work together
A ratio on its own says nothing about whether a plan works. These pairings show why.
| Risk to reward | Win rate | Expectancy | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 : 1 | 50% | 0R | Break-even |
| 1 : 2 | 40% | +0.2R | Positive on paper |
| 1 : 2 | 30% | -0.1R | Loses on average |
| 1 : 3 | 30% | +0.2R | Positive on paper |
| 1 : 1 | 60% | +0.2R | Positive on paper |
| 1 : 0.5 | 60% | -0.1R | Loses on average |
| 1 : 3 | 20% | -0.2R | Loses on average |
Expectancy is in R which is the amount you risk per trade. All numbers come from the formula above with no fees.
Why losing streaks matter
Even a plan with positive expectancy loses several trades in a row now and then. With a 40% win rate there is about a 49% chance of at least one run of eight losses in 100 trades. At a 50% win rate the chance of seven in a row is about 32%. These come from the same streak math the calculator uses.
Account size shows what that costs. This table uses a $10,000 account risking 1% of the current balance per trade:
| Losses in a row | Account after | Down |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | $9,702.99 | 3% |
| 5 | $9,509.90 | 4.9% |
| 10 | $9,043.82 | 9.6% |
| 20 | $8,179.07 | 18.2% |
At 1% risk it takes 11 straight losses to be down 10% and 29 to be down 25%. Risking 3% reaches those levels much sooner. That is why many educators teach small risk per trade. Use the position size calculator to set your size from your stop.
How to choose your ratio
Start from the market and not from the number. Put your stop where your idea is wrong. Put your target at a level where price has reacted before. Then read the ratio that falls out. If it is too low to work with your win rate you can skip the trade. You do not have to force a bigger target.
- Write your win rate down from real data. A trading journal template gives you the number to enter here.
- Check the break-even rate first. Ask whether you honestly win more often than that.
- Add your costs. Fees and slippage move the break-even rate up.
- Test on paper. Run the plan on a demo account before real money.
Common risk reward mistakes
- Chasing a big ratio. A target far from price looks great on paper and may rarely fill.
- Moving the stop. Widen the stop after entry and your real ratio is worse than the one you planned.
- Using a guessed win rate. A small sample can mislead. Track at least a few dozen trades.
- Ignoring costs. Fees count on every trade win or lose.
- Sizing by feel. The ratio does not set how much you buy. Your stop and risk percentage do. See how to calculate position size in crypto.
For the bigger picture read crypto risk management basics and the glossary entry on risk reward ratio.
About this calculator
CCF built this free calculator. CCF was founded by Joshua Montoya and Marty Cooney as equal co-founders. The math runs in your browser and nothing you type is sent to CCF. The formulas are standard risk math. They were checked with automated tests that include long and short trades and fees and an exact brute-force check of the losing streak chances. Last updated November 3, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good risk reward ratio for crypto trading?
There is no single good number. A ratio only means something next to your win rate. A 1 to 2 ratio needs about a third of your trades to win just to break even. A 1 to 1 ratio needs half. Choose a pairing you can repeat and test it on paper before using real money.
How do I calculate risk reward ratio?
Subtract your stop price from your entry price to get your risk per unit. Subtract your entry price from your target price to get your reward per unit. Divide the reward by the risk. Entry at 100 with a stop at 95 and a target at 110 gives a risk of 5 and a reward of 10 so the ratio is 1 to 2.
What does a 1:3 risk reward ratio mean?
It means you stand to make three times what you risk. If you risk $100 your target pays $300. At 1 to 3 you need to win about 25% of your trades to break even before costs.
What is the break-even win rate?
It is the share of trades you must win so that wins and losses cancel out. The formula is 1 divided by 1 plus your ratio. At 1 to 2 that is 1 divided by 3 or 33.3%. Win more often than that and the math is positive. Win less often and it is negative.
What is expectancy in trading?
Expectancy is the average result of one trade in units of your risk. Multiply your win rate by your reward ratio. Then subtract your loss rate. A result of +0.2R means that on average each trade adds 0.2 times the amount you risk. It only holds if your win rate and ratio hold.
What is an R multiple?
R is the amount you risk on a trade. A trade that makes twice your risk is +2R and a trade stopped out is -1R. Counting results in R lets you compare trades of different sizes and track them in a trading journal.
Does a bigger risk reward ratio always mean a better trade?
No. A farther target usually gets hit less often. A 1 to 5 trade that wins 10% of the time has an expectancy of -0.4R. The ratio and the win rate have to be judged together and the win rate should come from your own logged trades.
How do fees change my ratio?
Fees raise your loss and cut your gain. In price mode enter your exchange fee per side and the calculator counts it on your entry and on your exit. In ratio mode enter your total costs as a share of your risk such as 0.1 for a tenth of an R. The break-even win rate rises when costs rise.
How many losses in a row can happen?
Losing streaks are a normal part of any strategy that does not win every time. The table in this calculator shows the chance of at least one streak of a given length across the number of trades you choose. It uses your win rate and treats each trade as independent.
Can I use this for short trades?
Yes. Put your stop above your entry for a short and your target below it. The calculator detects the direction and runs the same math.
Is this financial advice?
No. This is an educational calculator. It does arithmetic on the numbers you enter. It does not forecast results or know your situation. Real trades can lose more than planned because of slippage and gaps.
More from CCF
Educational content only. CCF provides general education about digital assets, trading and investing. This tool gives estimates from the numbers you enter. It is not individualized financial, investment, legal or tax advice and CCF does not guarantee any outcome or return.